Calendars change but the world moves forward

Looking back on 2025

Glancing back, 2025 was another year filled with ‘news’. In short, the U.S. remained the central reference point for global macro conditions throughout the year and despite political turbulence, a historic government shutdown, and weakening sentiment, the economy proved more resilient than expected and markets delivered once again, led by the AI theme.

GDP growth slowed but remained positive, supported by consumer spending and a powerful AI‑driven capex cycle. Manufacturing stayed soft, but services and tech investment provided a stabilising counterweight. Hiring cooled meaningfully, partly due to immigration policy shifts, but layoffs remained mostly in check. Unemployment drifted higher but avoided a ‘large deterioration’.

Inflation eased but remained above target, as a tug of war between tariff‑driven goods inflation and sticky services inflation offset weaker oil prices, easing rental growth and slowing demand. As a result, the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, providing support to risk assets, though the path of easing remained cautious.

From a global perspective…

Growth slowed, trade fragmentation intensified and commodity volatility rose on AI driven demand and geopolitical tensions. Fiscal strain in developed markets led to concerns around long-term debt sustainability too and combined these issues helped boost emerging markets which alongside Europe had a world beating year last year! They outperformed for the first time since 2017 as tariff tensions eased and the dollar weakened. Precious metals were the standout asset class, with gold making more than 50 record highs and silver returning triple digits. Emerging markets delivered broad‑based gains, led by South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Taiwan, while China rebounded despite ongoing property‑sector weakness and Tariff headwinds.

Last year in one sentence…

I’d say 2025 was a year where markets climbed a wall of worry, delivering strong returns despite weak global growth, political noise, and persistent structural challenges.

Where to from here?

Well as we start off again after the holiday break we’ve pretty much picked up where we left off. Geopolitical issues are still front and centre especially post the US capture of Venezuela’s President on ‘narcoterrorism charges.’ This has resulted in an uplift in protesting in Iran as both citizens and government see a ‘similar’ scenario potentially playing out there, further the pressure being put on Russia is adding to the noise. Of course, it’s way too early to tell how this all ends and what the impact will be on both global markets and economies. Over the last year geopolitical events (wars, tariffs etc) have had a major impact on traditional safe havens like Gold and the spill over into ‘white’ metals has been considerable too. Countries are being forced to pick a side with a west based / east based divide remaining. The US and the West vs China/Russia and the ‘East’ will likely remain the game and both sides will be scrambling to secure resources that give them an edge in what will likely remain an ‘Economic War’. Dominance in AI and defence will remain top of list with the ramifications being felt across markets as we progress.

President Trump has also began shaking the tree in other areas too. Greenland, The US property market, credit card companies and the defence sector. All have already been put in his cross hairs, and the year is just a couple of weeks old! We’ve become accustomed to bold and brash statements by the US President, whether it’s a negotiating tactic, a true goal or just political posturing ahead of the mid-term elections in the US this year, one things for certain, it’s already off to the races in 2026!

For most of us this will all happen in the background while we just continue with our daily lives and try manage our own needs and challenges. This is of course where we can help.

*AnBro Portfolios * all returns in USD